{"id":5695,"date":"2026-03-23T18:28:05","date_gmt":"2026-03-23T18:28:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/deniztuncalp.com\/?p=5695"},"modified":"2026-11-06T17:15:29","modified_gmt":"2026-11-06T17:15:29","slug":"turkiye-needs-a-new-economic-formula-part-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/deniztuncalp.com\/?p=5695","title":{"rendered":"T\u00fcrkiye Needs a New Economic Formula \u2014 Part 2"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In my previous article, I argued that the analysis so far pointed to the need for a productivity-oriented economic model at the macro level. At the micro level, however\u2014in the daily lives of firms, tradespeople, and SMEs\u2014there is an order that works in the opposite direction. The state attempts to keep the existing structure afloat through short-term incentives, tax and social-security amnesties, credit support, and grants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In a crisis, even standing still becomes impossible. Costs rise, margins narrow, and the ground shifts. Yet this pressure does not drive firms toward transforming production, building brands, increasing value added, or investing in engineering and design. Contract manufacturers remain contract manufacturers, and subcontractors remain subcontractors. At most, when it is almost too late, they find the courage to relocate to Egypt, because the institutional environment encourages them not to move up the value chain but to survive another day under conditions of low productivity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The most important indicator illustrating this argument is total factor productivity (TFP). According to a BETAM study, TFP growth peaked at 3.1 percent between 2003 and 2007 but effectively stalled after 2014. A sectoral breakdown reveals the true scale of the problem:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Each firm behaves rationally from its own perspective: collect the incentive, benefit from the amnesty, and survive even with low productivity. But this individual rationality produces a collectively irrational outcome. Society, future generations, and macroeconomic balances pay the price. In South Korea, the state sent the chaebols something like this message: either you grow to compete globally or you fail. Firms that failed were indeed allowed to fail. That created pressure pushing the entire ecosystem upward. In T\u00fcrkiye, the signal has often been the opposite: do not go under; if necessary, I will rescue you, forgive your taxes or social-security debts, and you need not grow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Missing Link in SME Transformation<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Productivity-led growth has a very concrete meaning at the micro level: hundreds of thousands of SMEs, which form the backbone of T\u00fcrkiye’s economy, must become more dynamic, increase their scale, and move beyond low-value-added production. Several models around the world have achieved this, but each relies on different cultural and institutional preconditions. Germany has family-owned medium-sized firms that have become global leaders in specific niches. Behind them stands a strong vocational education system and a social appreciation of craftsmanship. In Italy, the prominent model involves clusters of small firms that compete collectively. T\u00fcrkiye’s Organized Industrial Zones (OSBs) resemble this structure physically, but the social capital is missing. Firms stand side by side, yet cooperation, knowledge sharing, and joint R&D remain weak in nearly every OSB. Taiwan, meanwhile, has focused less on growing firms directly and more on establishing strong technological infrastructure. Public research institutes develop technology and transfer it to SMEs, supported by science parks. We have technology parks as well, but technology development and transfer remain weak. R&D expenditure reached 1.46 percent of GDP in 2024. The increase is positive, yet the gap with reference countries remains structural:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

It may be possible to build in T\u00fcrkiye a culture that both draws positively on local conditions and improves them. The master\u2013apprentice tradition, the culture of the Ahi guilds, and an identity built around craftsmanship already exist historically. These values may have weakened today, but they have not disappeared altogether. What is needed is consistent political commitment, rather than decisions that are abandoned under short-term pressure. Transformation cannot occur if the state builds technology parks with one hand while using housing loans and construction rents to nurture a different economic direction with the other. A genuine strategy for transforming production must eliminate these contradictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indeed, T\u00fcrkiye’s cultural characteristics include, in some respects, a stronger tradition of small business and entrepreneurship than many European societies. People are not afraid to set up businesses. But this entrepreneurship is often focused on survival rather than growth and innovation. Opening a corner shop, restaurant, or small workshop is common. Where someone needs to generate household income, they may start a business without having to grow it\u2014or without access to the conditions required for growth. The rewards of growth are therefore weak and its risks high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u00fcrkiye also has strong networks of people from the same hometown and extended families. These networks have social-capital potential resembling the cluster model in Italy. Yet here that potential is used more often to distribute rents and patronage than to share knowledge, technology, and markets. The same network structure could produce very different results under different incentives. The model best suited to T\u00fcrkiye might combine Taiwan’s infrastructure-building approach with Italy’s logic of clustering. OSBs already provide a degree of physical clustering. What is missing are mechanisms for knowledge exchange, joint R&D, and technology transfer. The state could place genuinely functional technology transfer offices, shared testing laboratories, and export intelligence units within existing clusters. Above all, it could break the cycle of amnesties and incentives, establishing an order that rewards growth and makes stagnation costly. Of course, there is also the risk that these structures would be established merely because the state demands them, becoming symbolic and superficial.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the end, we return to the same question: cultural transformation. I am speaking of a transition from a society that glorifies consumption to one that values production, design, and mastery. We need to establish T\u00fcrkiye’s counterparts to Germany’s craftsmanship culture, Japan’s manufacturing traditions, and Korea’s technology-focused development. The rural-to-urban migration process discussed in detail in my previous article created almost the opposite cultural framework. New urban residents rapidly adopted patterns of urban consumption, but no comparable plan was put in place to develop a culture of production. Owning a home, buying a car, and consuming brands became status symbols. Designing, making, and innovating did not acquire the same social weight. Becoming a property developer often appeared more attractive and prestigious than becoming an engineer. This cannot be explained simply as a cultural preference; it is also a natural result of the incentive structure and state policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why Can’t We Reach Agreement?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

What would it take to agree on such a transformation? Above all, we need a minimal shared understanding of the problem. Everyone need not advocate the same solution. But if we cannot even agree that a problem exists, we will get nowhere. When the IMF arrived at South Korea’s door in 1997, society at least agreed on one point: there was a crisis, and action was necessary. Bitter arguments followed over the solution. Big business resisted reform, and unions opposed mass layoffs. Yet the reality of the crisis was not denied. In T\u00fcrkiye, even the definition of the problem is fragmented along political identities. We give different answers to the question of whether the economy is doing poorly, because identifying the problem has become as much about political belonging as about economics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We must also discuss openly how different segments of society will share the burden of change. This does not mean everyone should make equal sacrifices. It means making clear who will lose what and what they will receive in return. Ireland’s 1987 Programme for National Recovery offers an instructive example. Employers, unions, and government sat down together. Unions agreed to limit wage increases and refrain from strikes. Employers committed to protecting employment. The government undertook its share through taxation and social spending. What made the arrangement work was the reciprocity and visibility of sacrifice: if I am making a sacrifice, I can see that you are making one too. The participants then upheld their commitments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Such coordination requires institutional trust. The parties do not have to like one another, but they must trust the mechanisms that will monitor the agreement. Without independent institutions able to impose consequences when commitments are broken, nobody comes to the negotiating table in earnest. Financial oversight bodies established after the Korean crisis and the economic and social council in Ireland served such functions. In T\u00fcrkiye, the banking regulator (BDDK), capital markets regulator (SPK), and a more independent central bank had, for a time, begun to perform roles in this direction. Later, however, these institutions were systematically brought under political control. When the referee becomes political, negotiation reverts to being conducted primarily through politics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Organization and representation matter, too. Ireland had umbrella bodies representing different constituencies: unions on the labor side, strong representative structures among employers, and organizations with negotiating power among farmers. They could speak for their members and, to some extent, commit them to collective decisions. The arrangements reached in the national recovery program were not, in a strict sense, legal contracts. Yet they worked through repeated relationships, public pressure, and tax and incentive policies tied to the agreements. Reaching agreement, then, does not mean that everyone thinks alike or is compelled by law to comply. It means bargaining among different interests under shared rules. It means negotiating around a table instead of fighting in a disorganized way on the street, with at least some confidence that the negotiating table itself is legitimate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In T\u00fcrkiye, we lack not only a strong negotiation culture but also this kind of organization. It is unclear who could credibly sit at the table on behalf of different social groups. Unionization is low. On the employers’ side, T\u00dcS\u0130AD represents large businesses, while TOBB represents chambers and the broader business community, including tradespeople and SMEs, but both have limited capacity to bind their members to commitments. Farmers’ organizations are fragmented. Professional chambers have not escaped political polarization. Actors able to say “I represent this constituency, and my members will stand behind my commitments” are weak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Trust Deficit and the Informal Order<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Social norms pose problems on a similar scale. Ireland is a smaller, more homogeneous country in which damage to social reputation can carry a higher cost. T\u00fcrkiye is far larger, more socially layered, and more anonymous. Common norms that might connect society were already weak and have been further eroded by political polarization. Even neighbors living on the same street may inhabit entirely different media worlds. When shared norms are fragile and a common sense of reality also weakens, creating common norms becomes harder still.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The practice of sitting down to negotiate is also underdeveloped. Ireland did not build that tradition overnight; it rested on decades of bargaining between unions and employers. In T\u00fcrkiye, comparable practices never became deeply rooted. The military coup of September 12, 1980, crushed the labor movement. Unions weakened further during the neoliberal period. Relations between employers and unions have often taken the form of confrontation or discreet cooperation rather than institutionalized negotiation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

There is also a major problem of trust. Not only institutional trust, but interpersonal and generalized social trust, is weak in T\u00fcrkiye. When institutions do not operate fairly, people distrust one another because they assume everyone is trying to turn the system to their own advantage. For the same reason, we do not readily demand or defend strong institutions: we expect whoever captures an institution to use it for their own benefit and against others. According to a 2025 global Pew Research Center survey, 83 percent of adults in Sweden say “most people can be trusted,” compared with just 14 percent in T\u00fcrkiye. International data also point to a relationship between trust and economic development: countries with higher trust tend to have systematically higher productivity and per capita income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Trust is not entirely absent from T\u00fcrkiye, of course. But it is often narrow, focused on family, people from the same hometown, one’s own group, and close associates. Informal networks are strong; formal institutions are weak. People try to solve problems through contacts rather than rules. Favoritism, personal connections, and patronage enter here. This trust deficit links many of our problems. It helps the rent-seeking economy flourish because, where trust is low, a tangible benefit distributed through a narrow network seems more credible and attainable than promises of broad prosperity. SMEs avoid cooperating because sharing knowledge requires trust. Agreements do not emerge because people have little confidence that the other side will keep its word. Formal mechanisms, such as the law, and informal ones, such as social pressure, that might support trust are weak or absent. Against that background, sitting down to negotiate does not appear rational. There is no referee\u2014or, if there is one, its neutrality is in doubt. Consequently, in T\u00fcrkiye, who is doing something often becomes more decisive in determining which side people take than what is actually being done.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Where Should We Begin?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

The picture that emerges is a multilayered problem. Yet none of these arrangements is a law of nature. They are socially constructed and therefore can be reconstructed\u2014if we can work out how. The critical question is where to start. Changing everything at once is impossible. Organization does not work without trust; agreement is difficult without organization; and reform does not progress without agreement. But waiting indefinitely for trust to emerge on its own is not realistic either.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One way out of this impasse may be to start small, at the level of micro-relations. Successful experiences of cooperation on a limited scale can generate trust over time, and that trust may gradually be extended to larger scales. Some interventions can affect several layers at once. Generating nationwide trust in a country of 85 million people at a stroke is difficult. Trying to do so at the level of a neighborhood, district, organized industrial zone, or sector is more feasible. Building cooperation within a province, an OSB, or an industrial cluster is far more realistic than immediately achieving national consensus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example, allowing citizens to participate directly at the local level in decisions about how part of a municipal budget is used could be a meaningful step. It would create opportunities to practice decision-making while making the use of public resources more visible and accountable. Businesses in the same organized industrial zone could jointly solve common problems through energy-purchasing cooperatives, shared testing laboratories, or the exchange of export information. This is not a sequential model that says “first create trust, then implement reform.” Rather, the hope is that small-scale cooperation will gradually build trust, strengthen habits of organization, and provide tangible economic benefits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What Should the State Do?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

On the state’s side, some decisions need not be postponed. The first task is to move toward an incentive system that rewards growth and makes standing still costly. Without that, productivity gains are unlikely. High rents must be taxed, and a substantial part of the increase in land value generated by zoning changes should return to the public. Otherwise, the strategy of buying land, securing rezoning, and making a large profit quickly will remain more attractive than investing in production. Ending amnesties would be another important step. T\u00fcrkiye’s history shows just how difficult a firm commitment would be. Since the Republic was founded, 52 tax amnesty laws have been passed over 99 years\u2014an average of one every 33 months:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Tax amnesties, social-security debt amnesties, and zoning amnesties all send the same message: “Following the rules is optional.” That penalizes those who comply and undermines institutional trust. Simply ending the practice could therefore send a powerful institutional signal. The perception that the state consistently enforces its own rules is one of the foundations of trust. It is easy for me to list these measures on paper, but given the country’s political habits, they may be among the hardest decisions to implement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Production investment also needs clear, selective support. Rather than distributing a little support to everyone, incentives should focus on scaling up, R&D, exports, and technology investment. The state’s role should be less about directly growing individual firms and more about providing infrastructure. Technology transfer offices, shared testing laboratories, and export intelligence units matter for this reason. Vocational education reform should be part of the same effort. But producing technical skills is not enough; a culture of production must also be built. In an AI era that may erode the attractiveness and security of many white-collar occupations, skilled craftsmanship could regain social prestige. We need a modern counterpart to the Ahi tradition. When a skilled CNC operator, tool-and-die maker, or mechatronics technician can pursue a profession with strong income and status, the social foundations of a production economy begin to change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course, no single intervention is sufficient. Together, however, they can become mutually reinforcing. Local cooperation builds trust. Ending amnesties strengthens institutional confidence. Restoring the independence of regulators and making law more predictable facilitate negotiation at every level. Successful multilateral bargaining builds organizational capacity. Organized actors create a social base for larger reforms. Education reform changes the cultural foundations over the longer term. These changes need not all happen at once. Some can start immediately; others will require political will to be built in the same direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What Should We Do?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

We cannot explain this entire picture solely through misguided state policies and then stand aside. The problem is not only the incentives imposed from above but also what we consider normal in everyday life. As long as we treat tax amnesties as ordinary, favoritism as inevitable, rent-seeking as cleverness, and disregard for rules as part of life, production, technical knowledge, craftsmanship, and long-term investment will not gain strong social support. T\u00fcrkiye needs not only a new economic program but also a departure from an everyday mentality that rewards making money by the shortest route. As long as becoming wealthy without producing anything remains attractive, the production economy will remain an empty slogan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We should therefore do more than wait for governments to make the right decisions. We must establish more serious, rule-based, and productive relationships in our own interactions. Companies located side by side in the same OSB should see one another as more than competitors and cooperate in joint testing, training, export intelligence, and shared technology. Municipalities should become institutions that strengthen local economic capabilities, rather than organizations concerned only with roads and zoning. Vocational education should be viewed by families not as a fallback for those with no other choice, but as a respectable path to a real future. If young people are continually told that a desk-based white-collar career is the only measure of success, a culture of production will struggle to develop a social foundation. As AI threatens white-collar work, we should rediscover production, mastery, and the distinctiveness of craftsmanship.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Put more plainly, the country needs to take production and value added seriously again. In a system where people who obey rules are treated as fools, those who do their work properly as naive, and those who make money through shortcuts as smart, industry cannot transform, productivity cannot grow, and lasting prosperity cannot emerge. We need both to demand an end to the amnesty-and-rent-seeking order from politics and to establish different standards in our own lives: standards that do not belittle skilled work, sacrifice engineering to appearances, treat design as an integral part of production rather than a luxury, or subordinate collective work to personal gain. The prospect of change will emerge only if state policies and individuals’ collective behavior move in the same direction. Otherwise, crises will come and go, contract manufacturers will remain contract manufacturers, subcontractors will remain subcontractors, and the system will stagger onward as long as it can. Meanwhile, the world will pass from one technological revolution to another, and T\u00fcrkiye will continue to erode.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In my previous article, I argued that the analysis so far pointed to the need for a productivity-oriented economic model at the macro level. At the micro level, however\u2014in the daily lives of firms, tradespeople, and SMEs\u2014there is an order that works in the opposite direction. The state attempts to keep the existing structure afloat […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4669,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[39,43],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5695","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-pol","category-tech"],"yoast_head":"\nT\u00fcrkiye Needs a New Economic Formula \u2014 Part 2 - DenizTuncalp.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/deniztuncalp.com\/?p=5695\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T\u00fcrkiye Needs a New Economic Formula \u2014 Part 2 - DenizTuncalp.com\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In my previous article, I argued that the analysis so far pointed to the need for a productivity-oriented economic model at the macro level. 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At the micro level, however\u2014in the daily lives of firms, tradespeople, and SMEs\u2014there is an order that works in the opposite direction. The state attempts to keep the existing structure afloat […]","og_url":"https:\/\/deniztuncalp.com\/?p=5695","og_site_name":"DenizTuncalp.com","article_published_time":"2026-03-23T18:28:05+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-11-06T17:15:29+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1024,"height":1024,"url":"https:\/\/deniztuncalp.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/rant_sq.png","type":"image\/png"}],"author":"admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Yazan:":"admin","Tahmini okuma s\u00fcresi":"16 dakika"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/deniztuncalp.com\/?p=5695#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/deniztuncalp.com\/?p=5695"},"author":{"name":"admin","@id":"https:\/\/deniztuncalp.com\/#\/schema\/person\/a56d7465e4d1b2e960c528a700aa5e35"},"headline":"T\u00fcrkiye Needs a New Economic Formula \u2014 Part 2","datePublished":"2026-03-23T18:28:05+00:00","dateModified":"2026-11-06T17:15:29+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/deniztuncalp.com\/?p=5695"},"wordCount":3242,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/deniztuncalp.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/deniztuncalp.com\/?p=5695#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/deniztuncalp.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/rant_sq.png","articleSection":["Politics","Technology"],"inLanguage":"tr","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/deniztuncalp.com\/?p=5695#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/deniztuncalp.com\/?p=5695","url":"https:\/\/deniztuncalp.com\/?p=5695","name":"T\u00fcrkiye Needs a New Economic Formula \u2014 Part 2 - 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