{"id":5028,"date":"2026-04-28T11:27:15","date_gmt":"2026-04-28T11:27:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/deniztuncalp.com\/?p=5028"},"modified":"2026-04-28T15:13:47","modified_gmt":"2026-04-28T15:13:47","slug":"nasanin-challenger-deneyiminden-yapay-zeka-dersleri-kurumlar-bildiklerini-nasil-kaybediyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/deniztuncalp.com\/?p=5028&lang=tr","title":{"rendered":"NASA’n\u0131n Challenger Deneyiminden Yapay Zeka Dersleri: Kurumlar Bildiklerini Nas\u0131l Kaybediyor?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

28 Ocak 1986 sabah\u0131 Challenger uzay meki\u011fi f\u0131rlat\u0131ld\u0131. 73 saniye sonra par\u00e7aland\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu olay genellikle teknik bir ar\u0131za olarak anlat\u0131l\u0131r. So\u011fuk hava, kat\u0131 yak\u0131t roketlerindeki O-ring contalar\u0131n\u0131 etkiledi. Conta g\u00f6revini yapamad\u0131. S\u0131cak gaz s\u0131zd\u0131 ve mekik infilak etti. Bu anlat\u0131 do\u011fru ama eksik.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Challenger kazas\u0131ndan \u00f6nce NASA\u2019n\u0131n elinde bu tip riskler konusunda bilgiler vard\u0131. Morton Thiokol, m\u00fchendisleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n O-ring performans\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l etkileyebilece\u011fi konusunda uyar\u0131da bulunmu\u015ftu. Daha \u00f6nceki u\u00e7u\u015flardan gelen hasar kay\u0131tlar\u0131 vard\u0131. M\u00fchendislik taraf\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131k bir rahats\u0131zl\u0131k vard\u0131. Risk g\u00f6r\u00fclse de, g\u00f6r\u00fclen riskin karar an\u0131nda ayn\u0131 a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kla masada kalamamas\u0131 kazaya yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Journal of Management History’de bug\u00fcn yay\u0131nlanan son makalemde<\/a> ilgilendi\u011fim yer de buras\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Challenger kazas\u0131ndan \u00f6nceki gece yap\u0131lan telekonferansta m\u00fchendislerin bildi\u011fi \u015fey y\u00f6netime aktar\u0131lmak zorundayd\u0131. Bu aktar\u0131m basit bir sunum kurgusunda slaytlarla yap\u0131ld\u0131. Slayt burada yaln\u0131zca bir sunum arac\u0131 olman\u0131n \u00f6tesinde, bilginin hangi bi\u00e7imde konu\u015fulabilece\u011fini belirleyen bir filtre haline geldi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u00fchendislerin elindeki bilgi da\u011f\u0131n\u0131k, olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 ve rahats\u0131z ediciydi. So\u011fuk havada O-ring davran\u0131\u015f\u0131na dair kesin bir g\u00fcvenlik marj\u0131 yoktu. \u00d6nceki hasarlar, o sabah beklenen s\u0131cakl\u0131kla birlikte d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde f\u0131rlatman\u0131n ertelenmesi gerekti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyordu. Fakat bu bilgi slayta girerken bi\u00e7im de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. Maddeler halinde yaz\u0131larak alt c\u00fcmlelere b\u00f6l\u00fcnd\u00fc. Belirsizlikler zay\u0131flad\u0131 ve kamufle oldu. Kontrol grubu niteli\u011findeki baz\u0131 veriler g\u00f6r\u00fcnmez hale geldi. Risk, m\u00fchendislerin hissetti\u011fi seviye yerine, y\u00f6netimin konflru \u015fekilde i\u015fleyebilece\u011fi seviyede sunuldu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu ayr\u0131m \u00f6nemli. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc kurulu\u015flar kararlar\u0131 \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ham bilgi yerine, temsil edilmi\u015f bilgiyle al\u0131r. Bir tablo, slayt, \u00f6zet, skor kart\u0131 ya da model \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131s\u0131 yaln\u0131zca bilgiyi ta\u015f\u0131maz. Neyi karar vericiye anlataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, neyi d\u0131\u015far\u0131da b\u0131rakaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da se\u00e7er.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Challenger\u2019da da olan buydu. Risk kaybolmad\u0131 ama karar s\u00fcrecine girerken inceldi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NASA y\u00f6neticilerinin \u00f6n\u00fcne gelen \u015fey m\u00fchendislik bilgisinin k\u0131salt\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, d\u00fczenlenmi\u015f, toplant\u0131ya uygun hale getirilmi\u015f bir versiyonuydu. B\u00f6yle bir versiyon \u00e7o\u011fu zaman i\u015fe yarar. Kurumlar her ayr\u0131nt\u0131y\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015famaz. Ama baz\u0131 kararlar vard\u0131r ki ayr\u0131nt\u0131 karar\u0131n kendisidir. Challenger kazas\u0131na yol a\u00e7an f\u0131rlatmaya devam etme karar\u0131 bu t\u00fcr bir karard\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Makalede Challenger kazas\u0131ndan g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fcn \u00fcretken yapay zekas\u0131na (GenAI) buradan ge\u00e7iyorum. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bug\u00fcn\u00fcn kurumlar\u0131 da ayn\u0131 i\u015flemi ba\u015fka ara\u00e7lar kullanarak yap\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

B\u00fcy\u00fck dil modelleri uzun dava dosyalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6zetliyor. Hasta kay\u0131tlar\u0131ndan de\u011ferlendirme \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Finansal raporlar\u0131 k\u0131sa notlara \u00e7eviriyor. Teknik belgeleri y\u00f6netici diline indiriyor. Bunlar\u0131n hepsi zaman kazand\u0131r\u0131yor ama ayn\u0131 anda karar verenlerin neyi bildi\u011fini sand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NASA’da karar verirken kullan\u0131lan slayt\u0131n fiziksel s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 vard\u0131. Yapay zeka sistemlerinin de ba\u011flam pencereleri, token s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 ve dikkat mekanizmalar\u0131 var. Slayt sayfaya s\u0131\u011fmayan\u0131 d\u0131\u015far\u0131da b\u0131rak\u0131yordu. Model de ba\u011flam penceresine s\u0131\u011fmayan baz\u0131 bilgileri i\u015flem d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rakabilir, \u00f6nem vermedi\u011fi baz\u0131 b\u00f6l\u00fcmlere daha az a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verebilir, baz\u0131 ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 cevaba ta\u015f\u0131mayabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Karar verici olarak slaytta bazen neyin eksik oldu\u011funu sezebilirsiniz. Yapay zeka \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131s\u0131nda eksiklik daha zor hissedilir. Cevap ak\u0131c\u0131, c\u00fcmleler tamam, kullan\u0131lan ton kendinden emindir. Kullan\u0131c\u0131, metnin d\u00fczg\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden kapsam\u0131n da d\u00fczg\u00fcn oldu\u011fu sonucuna neredeyse otomatik olarak varabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu y\u00fczden mesele yaln\u0131zca \u201cmodel hal\u00fcsinasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcyor mu?\u201d diye sormak yeterli gelmiyor. Hal\u00fcsinasyon olmayan bir kaynak, uydurulmu\u015f bir karar, yanl\u0131\u015f bir tarih gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr bir hatad\u0131r. Ama \u00f6zetlenen kaynakta var olan bilginin model taraf\u0131ndan d\u0131\u015far\u0131da b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 bundan daha derin sonu\u00e7lar yarat\u0131yor. Model do\u011fru par\u00e7alar\u0131 kullanarak eksik bir b\u00fct\u00fcn kurabiliyor. Bunu da b\u00fcy\u00fck bir maharetle yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, kullan\u0131c\u0131 da bu eksikli\u011fi fark etmiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Makalemde ben buna token temelli epistemik filtreleme diyorum. Teknik bir s\u0131n\u0131r, kurumsal bilme sorununa d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Sistem baz\u0131 bilgileri g\u00f6rm\u00fcyor ya da yeterince i\u015flemiyor. \u00c7\u0131kt\u0131 ise insanlar taraf\u0131ndan sanki kaynak dosyan\u0131n tamam\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilmi\u015f gibi okunuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Challenger\u2019da slaytlar m\u00fchendislik bilgisinin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Ta\u015f\u0131mad\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131m karar\u0131n do\u011fru verilebilmesi i\u00e7in belirleyiciydi. G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fcn yapay zeka kullan\u0131m\u0131nda do\u011fan risk de buna benziyor. Modelin \u00f6zetledi\u011fi b\u00f6l\u00fcm do\u011fru olabilir. Sorun, \u00f6zetin d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn karar i\u00e7in daha \u00f6nemli olmas\u0131 ihtimalidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130kinci mesele de uzmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n yerinden edilmesi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Challenger gecesinde m\u00fchendisler vard\u0131. Konu\u015ftular. Uyard\u0131lar. Fakat karar s\u00fcrecinde m\u00fchendislik yarg\u0131s\u0131, y\u00f6netimin talep etti\u011fi kan\u0131t bi\u00e7imi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flad\u0131. Riskin kesin bi\u00e7imde ispatlanmas\u0131 beklendi. Oysa m\u00fchendislikte her bilgi bu formda gelmez. Baz\u0131 uyar\u0131lar deneyimden, \u00f6nceki anomalilerden, malzemenin davran\u0131\u015f\u0131na dair sezgisel ama e\u011fitimli bir yarg\u0131dan gelir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yapay zeka kullan\u0131m\u0131nda da benzer bir kayma var. Ba\u015fta modelden yaln\u0131zca taslak istenir. Sonra ilk okuma ona b\u0131rak\u0131l\u0131r. Sonra toplant\u0131ya giden notlar\u0131 o \u00fcretir. Bir s\u00fcre sonra uzman, dosyay\u0131 ba\u015ftan kuran ki\u015fi olmaktan \u00e7\u0131kar, modelin \u00fcretti\u011fi \u00e7er\u00e7eveyi kontrol eden ki\u015fiye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr. Bu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir i\u015f b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de, bilginin otoritesi yer de\u011fi\u015ftirir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kurum hala sorumlulu\u011fu insana y\u00fckler. \u0130mza insandad\u0131r. Ama karar\u0131n ilk \u00e7er\u00e7evesi model taraf\u0131ndan kuruluyorsa, uzmanl\u0131k s\u00fcrecin son kontrol noktas\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131r. Zaman bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda o son kontrol de \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ger\u00e7ek bir inceleme olmaz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hukukta bu, dava dosyas\u0131ndaki istisnan\u0131n ka\u00e7mas\u0131 demektir. Sa\u011fl\u0131kta, hasta kayd\u0131ndaki k\u0131sa bir notun g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemesi demektir. Finansta, raporun arka sayfalar\u0131ndaki bor\u00e7 ko\u015fulunun \u00f6zet d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 demektir. M\u00fchendislikte, teknik bir uyar\u0131n\u0131n \u201cgenel risk\u201d ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 alt\u0131nda erimesi demektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bunlar ayn\u0131 t\u00fcrden olaylar olmasa da, ayn\u0131 soruyu do\u011furuyorlar: Karar veren ki\u015fi ger\u00e7ekten neyi biliyor?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Challenger\u2019\u0131n bug\u00fcne kalan taraf\u0131 burada. NASA\u2019n\u0131n sorunu bilgiye sahip olmamas\u0131ndan kaynaklanmad\u0131. Bilginin kurumsal dola\u015f\u0131mda zay\u0131flamas\u0131 problemin esas kayna\u011f\u0131yd\u0131. Bug\u00fcn yapay zeka kullanan kurumlar i\u00e7in de bu konu \u00e7ok kritik. Model ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 yaz\u0131yor? Ne kadar d\u00fczg\u00fcn \u00f6zetliyor? Bunlar ikincil sorular. \u00d6nce bu sistem hangi bilgiyi d\u0131\u015far\u0131da b\u0131rak\u0131yor ve bunu kim fark edebiliyor diye sormal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Y\u00fcksek riskli i\u015flerde yapay zeka \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131s\u0131 karar\u0131n kendisi olmamal\u0131. Karara haz\u0131rl\u0131k malzemesi olmal\u0131. Modelin hangi belge b\u00f6l\u00fcmlerini i\u015fledi\u011fi, hangi s\u0131n\u0131rlarla \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131, hangi bilgiyi kapsamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr olmal\u0131. Uzman do\u011frulamas\u0131 sonradan eklenen bir tedbir olmak yerine, s\u00fcrecin par\u00e7as\u0131 olmal\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

H\u0131z\u0131n ve h\u0131z beklentisinin g\u00f6z kama\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde, kurulu\u015flar\u0131n bazen yava\u015flamas\u0131 gerekir. Her d\u00fczg\u00fcn \u00f6zet karar masas\u0131na hemen girmemeli. Birinin \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p \u201cBu \u00f6zet metin neyi d\u0131\u015far\u0131da b\u0131rakt\u0131?\u201d diye sormas\u0131 gerekir. Bu soru verimlili\u011fi azaltabilir. Ama y\u00fcksek riskli baz\u0131 i\u015flerde verimlilikten \u00f6nce yanl\u0131\u015f g\u00fcveni azaltmak gerekir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Challenger\u2019da m\u00fchendislik bilgisinin karar g\u00fcc\u00fc de kayboldu. Bilgi vard\u0131, ama karar an\u0131na bu bilgi ayn\u0131 etkide ula\u015famad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yapay zeka ile de ayn\u0131 riskle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yay\u0131z: bilgi var ama p\u00fcr\u00fczs\u00fczle\u015ferek zay\u0131fll\u0131yor. Kurulu\u015flar bunu g\u00f6rmeden yapay zekay\u0131 karar s\u00fcre\u00e7lerine yerle\u015ftirirse, gelecekteki hatalar yaln\u0131zca makinelerin yanl\u0131\u015f cevap vermesinden kaynaklanmayacak. \u0130nsanlar\u0131n d\u00fczg\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnen eksik cevaplara fazla h\u0131zl\u0131 inanmas\u0131ndan kaynaklanacak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu gidi\u015fle yapay zeka kullan\u0131rken \u00e7ok uzay mekikleri patlayacak.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

28 Ocak 1986 sabah\u0131 Challenger uzay meki\u011fi f\u0131rlat\u0131ld\u0131. 73 saniye sonra par\u00e7aland\u0131. Bu olay genellikle teknik bir ar\u0131za olarak anlat\u0131l\u0131r. So\u011fuk hava, kat\u0131 yak\u0131t roketlerindeki O-ring contalar\u0131n\u0131 etkiledi. Conta g\u00f6revini yapamad\u0131. S\u0131cak gaz s\u0131zd\u0131 ve mekik infilak etti. Bu anlat\u0131 do\u011fru ama eksik. Challenger kazas\u0131ndan \u00f6nce NASA\u2019n\u0131n elinde bu tip riskler konusunda bilgiler vard\u0131. Morton […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5032,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[45,31,54],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5028","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tekno","category-yz","category-yonetim"],"yoast_head":"\nNASA'n\u0131n Challenger Deneyiminden Yapay Zeka Dersleri: Kurumlar Bildiklerini Nas\u0131l Kaybediyor? - DenizTuncalp.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/deniztuncalp.com\/?p=5028&lang=tr\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"NASA'n\u0131n Challenger Deneyiminden Yapay Zeka Dersleri: Kurumlar Bildiklerini Nas\u0131l Kaybediyor? - DenizTuncalp.com\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"28 Ocak 1986 sabah\u0131 Challenger uzay meki\u011fi f\u0131rlat\u0131ld\u0131. 73 saniye sonra par\u00e7aland\u0131. Bu olay genellikle teknik bir ar\u0131za olarak anlat\u0131l\u0131r. So\u011fuk hava, kat\u0131 yak\u0131t roketlerindeki O-ring contalar\u0131n\u0131 etkiledi. Conta g\u00f6revini yapamad\u0131. S\u0131cak gaz s\u0131zd\u0131 ve mekik infilak etti. Bu anlat\u0131 do\u011fru ama eksik. Challenger kazas\u0131ndan \u00f6nce NASA\u2019n\u0131n elinde bu tip riskler konusunda bilgiler vard\u0131. 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Bu olay genellikle teknik bir ar\u0131za olarak anlat\u0131l\u0131r. So\u011fuk hava, kat\u0131 yak\u0131t roketlerindeki O-ring contalar\u0131n\u0131 etkiledi. Conta g\u00f6revini yapamad\u0131. S\u0131cak gaz s\u0131zd\u0131 ve mekik infilak etti. Bu anlat\u0131 do\u011fru ama eksik. Challenger kazas\u0131ndan \u00f6nce NASA\u2019n\u0131n elinde bu tip riskler konusunda bilgiler vard\u0131. 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