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<\/figure>\n\n\n\nAma bu do\u011fal b\u00fcy\u00fcme bir yan\u0131lsama da ta\u015f\u0131yor. Bu s\u00fcrecin sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 verimlilik art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bir kerelik bir kazan\u0131m. Kentsel sekt\u00f6rler bu n\u00fcfusu verimli istihdam edemedi\u011finde veya k\u0131rsaldan kente aktar\u0131lacak n\u00fcfus t\u00fckendi\u011finde b\u00fcy\u00fcme motoru duraklar veya tamamen durur. Bizde de \u00f6yle oldu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rakamlar \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131. 1927\u2019de 3,3 milyon ki\u015fi kentlerde ya\u015f\u0131yordu, 10,3 milyon ki\u015fi k\u00f6ylerde. 2025\u2019te 66,5 milyon kentte, 5,5 milyon k\u0131rsalda. N\u00fcfusun d\u00f6rtte \u00fc\u00e7\u00fc k\u0131rsalda ya\u015farken, \u015fimdi d\u00f6rtte \u00fc\u00e7\u00fc kentte ya\u015f\u0131yor. Tam tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc. K\u0131rsal n\u00fcfus gen\u00e7lerini g\u00f6\u00e7e vere vere ya\u015fland\u0131 ve bitti. Art\u0131k k\u0131rsaldan \u015fehire gelecek kimse neredeyse kalmad\u0131. Son ekonomik krizle birlikte do\u011fum oranlar\u0131 da \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Form\u00fcl\u00fcn Tarihsel Ge\u00e7mi\u015fi<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Erken Cumhuriyet d\u00f6neminde (1923\u20131950) devlet a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 te\u015fvik etti. \u00c7ok \u00e7ocuklu aileler \u00f6d\u00fcllendirildi, k\u00fcrtaj yasakland\u0131, do\u011fum h\u0131zlar\u0131 kad\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131na 7 \u00e7ocu\u011fa ula\u015ft\u0131. Ama hen\u00fcz kentle\u015fmeyi h\u0131zland\u0131racak bir politika yoktu. N\u00fcfusun y\u00fczde 75\u2019i hala k\u0131rsaldayd\u0131, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ekonomi tar\u0131ma dayan\u0131yordu ve devletin bu n\u00fcfusa ihtiyac\u0131 vard\u0131. Tarladaki insan say\u0131s\u0131, gelecekteki b\u00fcy\u00fcme motorunun yak\u0131t\u0131 olmak \u00fczere sessizce birikiyordu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n K\u0131r\u0131lma 1950\u2019lerde geldi. Marshall yard\u0131mlar\u0131yla tar\u0131mda makinele\u015fme ba\u015flay\u0131nca trakt\u00f6r say\u0131s\u0131 birka\u00e7 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde binlerden on binlere f\u0131rlad\u0131. Bu, k\u0131rsalda bir emek fazlas\u0131 yaratt\u0131. Art\u0131k ayn\u0131 \u00fcretim i\u00e7in o kadar \u00e7ok ele gereksinim kalmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ayn\u0131 anda Menderes h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin karayolu a\u011f\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 k\u00f6ylerle kentler aras\u0131ndaki fiziksel bariyeri kald\u0131rd\u0131. K\u0131rsal\u0131 iten g\u00fc\u00e7ler (makinele\u015fme, toprak yetersizli\u011fi, par\u00e7al\u0131 miras) ve kenti \u00e7eken g\u00fc\u00e7ler (sanayi istihdam\u0131, altyap\u0131, e\u011fitim olanaklar\u0131) e\u015f zamanl\u0131 devreye girdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 1950\u20131980 aras\u0131nda kentsel n\u00fcfus 5,2 milyondan yakla\u015f\u0131k 19,6 milyona y\u00fckseldi. Otuz y\u0131lda d\u00f6rt kat. G\u00f6\u00e7 eden n\u00fcfus b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015fehirlerin \u00e7evresinde gecekondu ku\u015faklar\u0131 olu\u015fturdu. Ve bu gecekondular ba\u015fl\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131na bir ekonomi yaratt\u0131. \u0130n\u015faat malzemesi talebi, enformel istihdam a\u011flar\u0131, yeni t\u00fcketici kitleleri. Gecekondu, Brezilya ve ba\u015fka \u00fclkelerde oldu\u011fu gibi metruk bir yerle\u015fim de\u011fil, birer b\u00fcy\u00fcme laboratuvar\u0131yd\u0131. \u0130mar aflar\u0131yla apartmanlar\u0131n ve yo\u011fun yerle\u015fimin merkezi oldular. Bir metrekare park veya herhangi bir sosyal donat\u0131 yokmu\u015f, altyap\u0131s\u0131 zay\u0131f, yollar\u0131 \u00e7amurluymu\u015f ne gam.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 1985\u2019te kent n\u00fcfusu ilk kez k\u0131r\u0131 ge\u00e7ti. Ondan sonra k\u0131rsal n\u00fcfus mutlak say\u0131 olarak da d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. 1980\u2019de 25 milyonla zirveydi, 2025\u2019te 5,5 milyon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n H\u00fck\u00fcmetler kentle\u015fmeyi y\u00f6nettiler demek g\u00fc\u00e7. Daha \u00e7ok ekonomik yap\u0131y\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrerek g\u00f6\u00e7\u00fc ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz k\u0131ld\u0131lar ve sonra g\u00f6\u00e7\u00fcn yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sorunlara reaktif politikalarla cevap verdiler. Gecekondu aff\u0131 yasalar\u0131 bunun en tipik \u00f6rne\u011fi. Fiili durumu me\u015frula\u015ft\u0131rarak hem sosyal gerilimi azaltt\u0131lar hem de kentsel rant ekonomisini beslediler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Fatura: K\u0131rsal\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcl\u00fc\u015f\u00fc<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Bu form\u00fcl\u00fcn en a\u011f\u0131r faturas\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131rsal \u00f6dedi. Bug\u00fcn k\u0131rsal kesim bir \u00e7ift ya\u015flanma problemiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Birincisi, T\u00fcrkiye genelinde do\u011furganl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor ve t\u00fcm \u00fclke ya\u015flan\u0131yor. 65 ya\u015f \u00fcst\u00fc oran\u0131 1935\u2019te y\u00fczde 3,9\u2019du, 2025\u2019te y\u00fczde 11,1. \u0130kincisi ve daha kritik olan\u0131, g\u00f6\u00e7 se\u00e7ici bir s\u00fcre\u00e7. \u00d6ncelikle \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma \u00e7a\u011f\u0131ndaki gen\u00e7ler gitti, geride ya\u015fl\u0131lar kald\u0131. T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019in 2025 verilerine g\u00f6re belde ve k\u00f6ylerde ya\u015fayan yakla\u015f\u0131k 5,5 milyon ki\u015finin 885 bini 0\u201314 ya\u015f, 3,5 milyonu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma \u00e7a\u011f\u0131, yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,2 milyonu 65 ya\u015f \u00fczerinde. K\u0131rsal n\u00fcfusta ya\u015fl\u0131 oran\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 22. \u00dclke ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n tam iki kat\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n K\u0131rsal n\u00fcfus ya\u015f da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 ve ulusal kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma (2025). Kaynak: T\u00dc\u0130K ADNKS.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019in MAKS s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131rmas\u0131na g\u00f6re \u00fclke genelindeki 65 ya\u015f \u00fcst\u00fc n\u00fcfusun y\u00fczde 30\u2019u k\u0131r olarak s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131r\u0131lan yerlerde ya\u015f\u0131yor. Oysa k\u0131r n\u00fcfusu toplam n\u00fcfusun sadece y\u00fczde 16,8\u2019i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Neoliberal Sanayile\u015fme: 1980 ve Yar\u0131m Kalan Sanayile\u015fme Vaadi<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n 1980 asl\u0131nda \u00fclke i\u00e7in bir ekonomik model de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi denemesiydi. 24 Ocak Kararlar\u0131\u2019yla ithal ikameci, i\u00e7e kapal\u0131 ekonomiden ihracata dayal\u0131, \u00fcretim odakl\u0131 bir modele ge\u00e7i\u015f hedeflendi. Ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta i\u015faretler iyiydi. Tekstil, otomotiv yan sanayi, beyaz e\u015fya b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. \u0130hracat 1980\u2019de 2,9 milyar dolardan 1990\u2019da 13 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye ger\u00e7ekten bir sanayi taban\u0131 olu\u015fturmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kendi i\u00e7 dinami\u011finden \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f bir reform paketi gibi anlat\u0131l\u0131r, ger\u00e7ekte \u00f6yle olmad\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye 1970\u2019lerin sonunda d\u00f6viz krizi, d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 krizi, enerji krizi ya\u015f\u0131yordu. IMF ve D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 kap\u0131y\u0131 \u00e7ald\u0131. So\u011fuk Sava\u015f\u2019\u0131n o anki dengesi i\u00e7inde Bat\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u00e7\u00f6kmesini g\u00f6ze alamazd\u0131. NATO\u2019nun g\u00fcneydo\u011fu kanad\u0131, \u0130ran Devrimi\u2019nin hemen ard\u0131ndan, Sovyet Afganistan i\u015fgalinin ortas\u0131nda. 24 Ocak paketinin arkas\u0131nda \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir uluslararas\u0131 irade vard\u0131. \u00d6zal\u2019\u0131n vizyonu vard\u0131 evet, ama o vizyonu m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131lan uluslararas\u0131 konjonkt\u00fcr ve finansmand\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Esasen 12 Eyl\u00fcl bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn siyasi altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 haz\u0131rlad\u0131. Sendikalar ezildi, sol muhalefet tasfiye edildi, \u00fccretler bask\u0131land\u0131, grev hakk\u0131 fiilen ask\u0131ya al\u0131nd\u0131. Ucuz emek modeline ge\u00e7i\u015f toplumsal r\u0131za ile olmad\u0131, bask\u0131yla oldu. \u0130hracat\u0131n 1980\u20131990 aras\u0131nda d\u00f6rt kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n arkas\u0131nda sadece d\u00f6viz kuru ayarlamas\u0131 yok, ayn\u0131 zamanda reel \u00fccretlerin y\u00fczde 30\u201340 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi var. Bu ancak bir askeri rejim alt\u0131nda yap\u0131labilirdi. \u00d6yle de oldu. CIA’in T\u00fcrkiye \u015eefi Paul Henze, d\u00f6nemin ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jimmy Carter’a darbeyi “Bizim \u00e7ocuklar ba\u015fard\u0131” diye haber vermi\u015fti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 1980 ile ba\u015flayan ekonomik model d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc g\u00fcnah\u0131yla sevab\u0131yla uluslararas\u0131 bask\u0131 ve finansman (IMF, D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131, Bat\u0131 ittifak\u0131) art\u0131 otoriter siyasi zemin (12 Eyl\u00fcl) art\u0131 teknokrat liderlik (\u00d6zal ve ekibi) ile ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Kolay Para, Zor Paray\u0131 Yendi<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm ile birlikte iki farkl\u0131 para kazanma yolu birbiriyle rekabete girdi. Birincisi zordu. Fabrika kur, \u00fcret, ihra\u00e7 et, rekabet et, teknolojini geli\u015ftir. \u0130kincisi kolayd\u0131. Arsa al, imar de\u011fi\u015ftir, in\u015faat yap, sat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin motoru k\u0131rdan kente g\u00f6\u00e7 olunca, gelen milyonlarca insan konut talebini patlatt\u0131. Bu talep ger\u00e7ekti, organik bir ihtiya\u00e7t\u0131. Arazi ve imar rant\u0131 siyasi patronaj sisteminin temel arac\u0131 haline geldi. \u0130mar de\u011fi\u015fiklikleriyle de\u011fer yarat\u0131l\u0131yor, bu de\u011fer siyasi a\u011flar \u00fczerinden da\u011f\u0131t\u0131l\u0131yor. Ve in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc bug\u00fcn bile d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck teknoloji, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck beceri, y\u00fcksek istihdam sa\u011fl\u0131yor. E\u011fitim, nitelik gerekmeksizin vas\u0131fs\u0131z i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc hemen emebiliyor. B\u00f6ylece in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc demografik arbitraj modelinin do\u011fal uzant\u0131s\u0131 oldu. K\u0131rdan gelen insan hem m\u00fc\u015fteriydi (konut talebi), hem i\u015f\u00e7iydi (in\u015faat istihdam\u0131), hem de siyasi rant\u0131n me\u015frula\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131s\u0131yd\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Bu arada \u00fcretim ekonomisi ad\u0131m ad\u0131m bo\u011fuldu. Bir yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn. Bir tarafta fabrika kurmak var. Be\u015f y\u0131l yat\u0131r\u0131m, belirsiz getiri, k\u00fcresel rekabetle u\u011fra\u015fma. Di\u011fer tarafta arsa almak var, imar ge\u00e7irmek, iki y\u0131lda y\u00fczde 300 getiri. Rasyonel bir akt\u00f6r hangisini se\u00e7er? Bizde de \u00f6yle oldu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Sermaye sistematik olarak \u00fcretimden ranta kayd\u0131. 2000\u2019li y\u0131llarda bu daha da h\u0131zland\u0131. Sosyal konut yaps\u0131n ve bar\u0131nma ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zs\u00fcn diye kurulmu\u015f TOK\u0130 devasa bir in\u015faat makinas\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Kentsel d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm projeleri trilyonlarca liral\u0131k rant yaratt\u0131. Sanayide kalanlar, say\u0131lar\u0131 git gide artan Organize Sanayi B\u00f6lgelerini doldursa da, s\u00f6zkonusu sanayi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck katma de\u011ferli segmentlerde s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Tekstil, basit otomotiv par\u00e7alar\u0131, g\u0131da i\u015fleme. Bug\u00fcn y\u00fcz\u00fc a\u015fk\u0131n teknopark ve say\u0131s\u0131z Ar-Ge merkezinin \u00fcretti\u011fi katmade\u011feri de ba\u015fka bir yaz\u0131ya b\u0131rakal\u0131m. Neticede OSB\u2019ler de, teknoparklar da rant ve in\u015faat ekonomisinin ezici g\u00fcc\u00fcnden ka\u00e7am\u0131yorlar. Savunma sanayi belki tek istisna, ama o da devlet destekli ve ihracat oda\u011f\u0131 belli \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Sonu\u00e7 olarak T\u00fcrkiye’nin askeri ihtilalin \u00fcretti\u011fi ac\u0131lar ile ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ekonomik d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck katma de\u011ferli \u00fcr\u00fcnleri ta\u015f\u0131yan bir sanayile\u015fme seviyesinde kald\u0131. \u00dcretime, tasar\u0131m, m\u00fchendislik ve inovasyona dayal\u0131 modele ge\u00e7mek yerine, mevcut demografik arbitraj modelinin \u00fczerine bir rant katman\u0131 ekledi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Start-up d\u00fcnyas\u0131nda bilinen bir tuzak bu. Kolay para g\u00f6r\u00fcnce zor ama s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir paradan vazge\u00e7mek. K\u0131sa vadede metrikler harika g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr. GSY\u0130H b\u00fcy\u00fcyor, istihdam art\u0131yor, kentler parl\u0131yor. Ama uzun vadede ne teknolojik derinlik olu\u015fur ne verimlilik artar ne de k\u00fcresel rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fc kazan\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u0130\u00e7 G\u00f6\u00e7 Eksi\u011fin, D\u0131\u015f G\u00f6\u00e7le Tamamlama<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n T\u00fcrkiye 2010\u2019lu y\u0131llardan itibaren n\u00fcfus hareketleri kaynakl\u0131 kolay kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n sonuna geldi. Kentle\u015fme oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 75\u2019i a\u015ft\u0131. Do\u011furganl\u0131k h\u0131z\u0131 2018\u2019de yenilenme d\u00fczeyinin alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, 2024\u2019te 1,48. Ortanca ya\u015f 34,9\u2019a y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin kayna\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7 g\u00f6\u00e7 t\u00fckenince yerini k\u0131smen d\u0131\u015f g\u00f6\u00e7e b\u0131rakt\u0131. 2011 sonras\u0131 Suriyeli g\u00f6\u00e7\u00fc ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta insani bir kriz y\u00f6netimiydi ama zamanla ekonomi politikas\u0131n\u0131n bir par\u00e7as\u0131 haline geldi. Kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam havuzuna milyonlarca ki\u015fi eklendi. Tekstil, in\u015faat, tar\u0131m gibi emek yo\u011fun sekt\u00f6rlerde ucuz i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc arz\u0131 devam etti. Ayn\u0131 ki\u015filer konut, g\u0131da, perakende talebini de canl\u0131 tuttu. 1950\u2019lerin k\u0131rdan kente g\u00f6\u00e7 form\u00fcl\u00fcn\u00fcn replikas\u0131yd\u0131. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Ama bu yaman\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fck kusuru var. Birincisi, ucuz emek bulduk\u00e7a firmalar\u0131n inovasyona yat\u0131r\u0131m yapma g\u00fcd\u00fcs\u00fc s\u0131f\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Neden robot als\u0131n ki, ucuz i\u015f\u00e7i var? T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na GSY\u0130H\u2019s\u0131n\u0131n 2013\u2019ten bu yana dolar baz\u0131nda fiilen gerilemi\u015f olmas\u0131 bu dinami\u011fin yans\u0131mas\u0131. \u0130kincisi, g\u00f6\u00e7men n\u00fcfusun do\u011furganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da h\u0131zla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor, demografik katk\u0131 ge\u00e7ici. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, sosyal s\u00fcrt\u00fcnme maliyeti art\u0131yor. G\u00f6\u00e7e kar\u015f\u0131 toplumsal tepki, emek piyasas\u0131ndaki \u00fccret bask\u0131s\u0131, kamu hizmetleri \u00fczerindeki y\u00fck.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Yeni Bir Form\u00fcl Gerek<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Art\u0131k daha fazla insan = daha fazla b\u00fcy\u00fcme form\u00fcl\u00fc \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131yor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na daha fazla \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ile b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi laz\u0131m. <\/p>\n\n\n\n \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczde sanki \u00fc\u00e7 olas\u0131 y\u00f6n var ama hi\u00e7biri kolay say\u0131lmaz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Verimlilik odakl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme. <\/strong>E\u011fitim kalitesini y\u00fckselt, Ar-Ge yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r, dijitalle\u015f, kurumsal reform yap. G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin 1990\u2019lardaki d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc en yak\u0131n \u00f6rnek. Ama onlar\u0131n o d\u00f6nemde sahip oldu\u011fu kurumsal altyap\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bug\u00fcnk\u00fc konumundan \u00e7ok farkl\u0131yd\u0131. \u00c7ok zor ama tek ger\u00e7ek \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yolu bizim i\u00e7in bu gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n K\u0131rsal\u0131n yeniden ke\u015ffi. <\/strong>K\u0131rsal\u0131 sadece g\u00f6nderen alan olmaktan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131p tutan bir alan haline getirmek. Tar\u0131msal verimlilik, k\u0131rsal turizm, uzaktan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma altyap\u0131s\u0131. Avrupa\u2019daki ak\u0131ll\u0131 k\u00f6y modelleri referans ama T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin k\u0131rsal altyap\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 (\u00f6zellikle dijital eri\u015fim, sa\u011fl\u0131k ve e\u011fitim hizmetlerinde) \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ya\u015flanma ekonomisi. <\/strong>Ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olan demografik ya\u015flanmay\u0131 bir kriz olarak g\u00f6rmek yerine bir sekt\u00f6r f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak ele almak. Bak\u0131m ekonomisi, sa\u011fl\u0131k teknolojileri, emeklilik finans \u00fcr\u00fcnleri, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f ekonomi. Japonya ve Almanya deneyimleri referans ama g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kurumsal kapasite \u015fart. Bunu yapabilmek i\u00e7in \u00f6nce Japonya veya Almanya gibi olmak laz\u0131m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u00dc\u00e7 alternatif yol da ayn\u0131 yere \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Kurumsal kapasite. Ve burada in\u015faat-rant meselesi tekrar devreye giriyor. \u00dcretim ekonomisine ge\u00e7i\u015f, ayn\u0131 zamanda rant ekseninde olu\u015fmu\u015f siyasi-ekonomik koalisyonun \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi demek. Bunu g\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc yapacak bir siyasi irade bulmak zor, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc o koalisyonun varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 tam da iktidar olmay\u0131\/iktidarada kalmay\u0131 sa\u011flayan yap\u0131. Partiler de\u011fi\u015fse bile siyaseti el alt\u0131ndan finanse eden ve siyasetten beslenen m\u00fcteahhitlerin hakimiyeti de\u011fi\u015fmiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n G\u00fcney Kore b\u00f6yle bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc yapabildi \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bizim holdinglerin Kore muadili chaebol\u2019ler zaten \u00fcretim odakl\u0131yd\u0131 ve devlet onlar\u0131 k\u00fcresel rekabete zorlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ise sermayenin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k merkezi \u00fcretimden gayrimenkule kaym\u0131\u015f. Ekonomik d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm i\u00e7in kurucu olmas\u0131 gerekenler bile, esasen farkl\u0131 bir oyun oynuyor, devlet de uygulamalar\u0131yla bamba\u015fka halleri te\u015fvik ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n De\u011fi\u015fimin Altyap\u0131s\u0131<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n 1980\u2019da ya\u015fanan ekonomik model d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn kald\u0131ra\u00e7lar\u0131 vard\u0131: uluslararas\u0131 destekleyici dinamik ve finansman, d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc zorla hayata ge\u00e7iren bir siyasi\/otoriter zemin ve d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftiren liderlik. Bug\u00fcn T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin rant ekonomisini t\u00fcm kurum ve al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131klar\u0131yla tamamen geride b\u0131rak\u0131p verimlilik ve katma de\u011fer temelli \u00fcretim ekonomisine d\u00f6nmesini sa\u011flayacak kendi ko\u015fullar\u0131 ise mevcut de\u011fil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Peki se\u00e7mene dayal\u0131 siyaset ile b\u00f6yle bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilebilir mi? Teorik olarak evet. Ancak pratikte rant ekonomisinin se\u00e7men taban\u0131 \u00e7ok geni\u015f. \u0130n\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde milyonlarca insan \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Konut fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131, konut sahibi se\u00e7menin servetinin artmas\u0131 demek. Bu insanlara rant ekonomisini bitirelim dedi\u011finizde, k\u0131sa vadeli \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131na ters d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyorsunuz. Ancak verimlilik odakl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin getirileri uzun vadeli. E\u011fitim reformunun meyvesi on be\u015f y\u0131lda al\u0131n\u0131r. Kar\u015f\u0131 taraf size \u00fc\u00e7 oda bir salon ev verece\u011fim diyorken siz on be\u015f y\u0131lda e\u011fitim kalitesini art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131z diyorsan\u0131z, se\u00e7im matemati\u011fi aleyhinize \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kutupla\u015fm\u0131\u015f siyasi yap\u0131s\u0131 reform konsens\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc daha da zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. G\u00fcney Kore\u2019de, \u0130rlanda\u2019da b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmler bir t\u00fcr ulusal konsens\u00fcsle yap\u0131ld\u0131. Herkes ya\u015fanacak sosyal maliyetin b\u00f6l\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc konusunda anla\u015fabildi. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de her reform \u00f6nerisi kimlik siyaseti filtresinden ge\u00e7iyor. Kim yap\u0131yor sorusu ne yap\u0131l\u0131yor sorusunun \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7iyor. <\/p>\n\n\n\n F\u0131rsat Penceresi<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Tarihsel olarak bu \u00f6l\u00e7ekte d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmler ya b\u00fcy\u00fck krizlerle ya da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc d\u0131\u015fsal dinemiklerle tetikleniyor. 2001 krizi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi reformlara zorlad\u0131, AB perspektifini kal\u0131c\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin 1997 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc Asya kriziyle geldi. Polonya\u2019y\u0131 AB \u00fcyelik perspektifi \u00e7ekti. Hepsinde ya bir kriz an\u0131 ya da bir d\u0131\u015fsal dinamik var, \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ikisi birden. Se\u00e7im yoluyla, kriz olmadan bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc yapan \u00f6rnek bulmak ger\u00e7ekten zor. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Tam da bu sat\u0131rlar yaz\u0131l\u0131rken, k\u00fcresel siyasetin domino ta\u015flar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. 28 \u015eubat 2026\u2019da ABD ve \u0130srail, \u0130ran\u2019a koordineli hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ba\u015flatt\u0131. \u0130ran dini lideri Hamaney \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc. 2 Mart\u2019ta Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 resmen kapatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ilan etti. Tanker trafi\u011fi y\u00fczde 97 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Brent petrol fiyat\u0131 sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi 65 dolar civar\u0131ndayken 126 dolara kadar f\u0131rlad\u0131. Analistler bunu 1970\u2019lerden bu yana en b\u00fcy\u00fck enerji krizi olarak tan\u0131ml\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u0130ran bo\u011faz\u0131 herkese kapatmad\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye, Hindistan, Pakistan, \u00c7in gemilerine se\u00e7ici ge\u00e7i\u015f izni verdi. Bu, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin co\u011frafi ve diplomatik konumunun yeniden stratejik de\u011fer kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. T\u00fcrkiye hem NATO \u00fcyesi hem \u0130ran\u2019la konu\u015fabilen bir \u00fclke. Bo\u011faz krizinde arabulucu olabilecek \u00e7ok az akt\u00f6r var ve T\u00fcrkiye bunlardan biri. ABD m\u00fcttefiklerinden koalisyon deste\u011fi istedi, cevap b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde hay\u0131r oldu. Avrupa sava\u015fa ba\u015ftan kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ve Trump y\u00f6netiminin tarife politikalar\u0131 nedeniyle m\u00fcttefik ili\u015fkileri zaten gergindi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Bu kriz T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in \u00e7ift tarafl\u0131 etki ta\u015f\u0131yor. Enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olarak cari a\u00e7\u0131k artabilir, enflasyon y\u00fckselebilir, b\u00fcy\u00fcme daha da zorlanabilir. Ama ayn\u0131 anda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin stratejik de\u011feri art\u0131yor. \u0130ran\u2019la konu\u015fabilen NATO \u00fcyesi. Enerji koridoru alternatifi. M\u00fclteci y\u00f6netiminde Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n muhta\u00e7 oldu\u011fu \u00fclke. Bu stratejik konum, 1980\u2019deki gibi d\u0131\u015fsal finansman ve pazarl\u0131k g\u00fcc\u00fc yaratabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131ndaki hesaplar\u0131n\u0131n tutmamas\u0131 nedeniyle ya\u015fayabilece\u011fi olas\u0131 bir siyasi \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f veya azledilmesi sadece Amerikan i\u00e7 siyasetinin meselesi olmaz. D\u00fcnya genelindeki otoriter-pop\u00fclist dalgan\u0131n sembolik k\u0131r\u0131lma noktas\u0131 hatta daha farkl\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 olabilir. 1974\u2019te Portekiz\u2019deki Karanfil Devrimi, \u0130spanya ve Yunanistan\u2019daki demokratikle\u015fmeyi tetikledi. 1989\u2019da Berlin Duvar\u0131 Do\u011fu Avrupa\u2019da zincirleme d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcme yol a\u00e7t\u0131. K\u00fcresel siyasi sal\u0131n\u0131mlar ger\u00e7ek bir olgu ve y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011finde sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 oluyor. Bu dinamik bir g\u00fcn meydana gelirse, bakars\u0131n\u0131z T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin yeni bir ekonomik modele ge\u00e7i\u015fi i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat penceresi a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ama bu t\u00fcr pencereler k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fcd\u00fcr. 2001 krizi sonras\u0131 AB \u00e7apas\u0131 uzun s\u00fcre g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalamad\u0131, 2005\u2019ten itibaren zay\u0131flamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. 1980 sonras\u0131 reformlar birka\u00e7 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde rant ekonomisine teslim oldu. Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n 1984 reformlar\u0131 birka\u00e7 y\u0131ll\u0131k yo\u011fun bir pencerede yap\u0131ld\u0131. Pencereden ge\u00e7mek i\u00e7in haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerek. Kurumsal tasar\u0131m, reform yol haritas\u0131, toplumsal koalisyon. Bunlar pencere a\u00e7\u0131lmadan \u00f6nce haz\u0131r de\u011filse, pencere a\u00e7\u0131lsa bile k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede kapan\u0131r ge\u00e7emezsiniz. Umdu\u011funuz d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmayabilir. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Bunun i\u00e7in iki \u015fey haz\u0131r olmal\u0131. Reform yol haritas\u0131, yani ne yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 belli olmal\u0131 ve b\u00f6yle bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc kuvvetli bir \u015fekilde siyasetten talep eden bir toplumsal koalisyon kurulmal\u0131. <\/p>\n\n\n\n S\u00f6ylemesi kolay, yapmas\u0131 malum.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" T\u00fcrkiye yakla\u015f\u0131k yetmi\u015f y\u0131l boyunca ayn\u0131 sihirli b\u00fcy\u00fcme form\u00fcl\u00fcn\u00fc kulland\u0131. Esasen basit bir form\u00fcl. K\u0131rsaldaki insanlar\u0131 kentlere g\u00f6\u00e7 ettir, \u00fcretim ve t\u00fcketim d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne sok. Ekonomi b\u00fcy\u00fcs\u00fcn. Mekanizma basit. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck verimlilikli tar\u0131mdan y\u00fcksek verimlilikli sanayi ve hizmet sekt\u00f6rlerine ge\u00e7en her birey, hi\u00e7bir teknolojik yenilik olmasa bile, ortalama \u00fcretkenli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131r. Ki\u015fi hem \u00fcretici olur hem t\u00fcketici. Tekstilde […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4453,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,45],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4445","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-pol-tr","category-tekno"],"yoast_head":"\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/deniztuncalp.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/kirsal2.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/deniztuncalp.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/kirsal3-1-1024x494.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nErken Cumhuriyet\u2019in K\u0130T\u2019lerle sanayile\u015fmesi<\/strong>
<\/mark>
1930\u2019larda B\u00fcy\u00fck Buhran\u2019\u0131n etkisiyle liberal ekonomi politikalar\u0131n\u0131n iflas etti\u011fi bir ortamda, gen\u00e7 Cumhuriyet devlet\u00e7ilik (etatizm) ilkesini benimsedi. \u00d6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn sermaye birikimi yoktu, piyasa mekanizmalar\u0131 yeterince geli\u015fmemi\u015fti. Devlet bizzat sanayici oldu.
1934\u2019te Birinci Be\u015f Y\u0131ll\u0131k Sanayi Plan\u0131 haz\u0131rland\u0131. S\u00fcmerbank ve Etibank kuruldu. S\u00fcmerbank tekstil, deri ve seramik alanlar\u0131nda; Etibank madencilik ve enerji alanlar\u0131nda faaliyet g\u00f6sterdi. Kayseri, Nazilli, Ere\u011fli\u2019de tekstil fabrikalar\u0131, Alpullu ve Eski\u015fehir\u2019de \u015feker fabrikalar\u0131, \u0130zmit\u2019te ka\u011f\u0131t fabrikas\u0131, Karab\u00fck\u2019te demir-\u00e7elik tesisleri kuruldu. Bunlar T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ilk end\u00fcstriyel omurgas\u0131yd\u0131.
Bu K\u0130T\u2019ler yaln\u0131zca fabrika kurulmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmiyordu. Etraflar\u0131nda lojman mahalleler, hastaneler, okullar, sinemalar in\u015fa edildi. Karab\u00fck gibi \u015fehirler bir demir-\u00e7elik fabrikas\u0131n\u0131n etraf\u0131nda s\u0131f\u0131rdan kuruldu. Bir bak\u0131ma devlet, sanayile\u015fmeyle birlikte \u015fehirle\u015fmeyi ve modern ya\u015fam bi\u00e7imini de in\u015fa ediyordu.
1950\u2019lerden sonra Demokrat Parti d\u00f6neminde \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ama K\u0130T\u2019ler varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. 1960\u2019larda Devlet Planlama Te\u015fkilat\u0131 (DPT) kuruldu, be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k kalk\u0131nma planlar\u0131 haz\u0131rland\u0131. \u0130thal ikameci sanayile\u015fme stratejisi benimsendi. Yerli \u00fcretimi korumak i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek g\u00fcmr\u00fck duvarlar\u0131 \u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu d\u00f6nemde \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6rde de \u00f6nemli sanayi gruplar\u0131 (Ko\u00e7, Sabanc\u0131, Eczac\u0131ba\u015f\u0131) b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc, ama hep koruma duvarlar\u0131n\u0131n arkas\u0131nda. K\u00fcresel rekabete a\u00e7\u0131k bir sanayile\u015fme ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi.
1970\u2019lerin sonuna gelindi\u011finde K\u0130T\u2019ler a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 istihdam, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck verimlilik ve siyasi m\u00fcdahaleyle an\u0131l\u0131r olmu\u015ftu. Zarar eden K\u0130T\u2019ler Hazine\u2019den finanse ediliyor, bu da b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 ve enflasyonu besliyordu. \u0130thal ikame modeli t\u0131kanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. D\u00f6viz krizi, d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 krizi, enerji krizi \u00fcst \u00fcste geldi. \u0130\u015fte 1980 bu durumun \u00fczerine, k\u00fcresel neoliberal dalgan\u0131n y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131 ile birlikte geldi.<\/td><\/tr>Edit: 23\/03\/2026<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n \u0130ktisat\u00e7\u0131lar bu s\u00fcreci Lewis modeli (s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z emek arz\u0131 alt\u0131nda k\u0131rdan kente transfer, marjinal verimlilik art\u0131\u015f\u0131, bir noktada emek fazlas\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fckenmesi) ve Fei-Ranis \u00e7er\u00e7evesiyle (tar\u0131msal sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn verimlili\u011fiyle ili\u015fkilendirilmi\u015f bi\u00e7imiyle) a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor. T\u00fcrkiye Lewis d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131n\u0131 (turning point) ge\u00e7mi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Emek transferi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde tamamland\u0131. Bundan sonras\u0131 i\u00e7in farkl\u0131 bir motor laz\u0131m. Romer ve Lucas\u2019\u0131n endojen b\u00fcy\u00fcme teorisi bu noktadan sonras\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor. Art\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme be\u015feri sermayeden, inovasyondan, bilgi yay\u0131l\u0131m\u0131ndan gelmek zorunda. T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in bundan sonras\u0131n\u0131 tasarlarken muhtemelen hibrit bir yakla\u015f\u0131m gerekiyor. \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc k\u0131rsal n\u00fcfus 5,5 milyon ve tar\u0131msal verimlilik hala \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla hem kalan k\u0131rsal n\u00fcfusu verimli tutacak hem de kentsel ekonomiyi inovasyon odakl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fctecek \u00e7ift katmanl\u0131 bir model d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek gerekiyor.<\/td><\/tr> Edit: 23\/03\/2026<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n